Covid Cancellation Conference (Nov 10-11)

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SCHEDULE
PRESENTERS
ABOUT

… More Months Go By … More Conventions Cancelled …

A series of four free webinars, presented online
by BI Mid-Michigan Chapter and Manifest Investing

This series of four webinars will be offered as a partial replacement for some of the sessions originally scheduled for BINC (BetterInvesting National Convention) which has been indefinitely postponed … due to the pandemic.

As the accompanying image of Tahquamenon Falls in Michigan’s upper peninsula suggests, we like to take a moment, Give Thanks, and celebrate that a colorful horizon lies ahead while we nod knowingly that this year has been a challenge. This is not the first time we’ve seen this movie. Stock markets have been surging and turbulent in the wake of a pandemic and the path ahead includes uncertain inflation effects and a variety of vision-impacting conditions. That said, we again envision a break in the clouds, a reliable burst of color on many of our landscapes and better days ahead. The pandemic includes an outbreak of event cancellations and there’s no more succinct way to express what we think about that. “We miss all of you.”

In that spirit, we’re building Successful Investing IV — a compendium of investing discussions intended to characterize the current challenges and demonstrate the discovery of opportunity. We’ve been through similar challenges in the past and the key is remembering what-we-do and what-really-matters and never forget that there’s always opportunities for long term investors.

Registration: You must register separately for each session; sign up for as many of the (4) sessions as you wish, using the registration URL listed with each session in the FULL SCHEDULE information below. Upon registering, you will receive a confirmation email with your access information. Use the information in the confirmation email to enter the webinar at the appropriate time.

Alternate registration sites are available at manifestinvesting.com and https:www.betterinvesting.org/chapters/mid-michigan/local-events.

Recordings: The sessions will be recorded and posted after the sessions to the Manifest Investing YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/user/manifestinvest/videos; you do not need to register to view the recordings.

FULL SCHEDULE (Times listed are for Eastern Daylight Time.)

Session 1: Stock Pickers, Groundhogs & Long-Term Investing (Ken Kavula, Mark Robertson)

Date: Wednesday – November 10 — 2 PM – 3:30 PM EDT
Registration: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4721899283424002573

This class will cover the results of the nineteenth annual Mid-Michigan Stockpickers’ Contest. We’ll celebrate the winners and the losers, examine some of the strategies used by the clubs to reap profits and recognize excellence in stock picking. We’ll also look at the Manifest Investing Groundhog contest and show how it can be mined as a rich source of ideas. The class will demonstrate that it doesn’t necessarily take a portfolio filled with exotic names to beat the market.

Session 2: 20 Questions — Investing & Investment Clubs (Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch, Mark Robertson)

Date: Wednesday — November 10 — 4 PM – 5:30 PM EDT
Registration: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/6212031108665399053

Have you ever played 20 questions? This class aims to discover new ways of becoming a Better Investor and to reinforce tried and true investing behaviors. Our questions will be gathered from club visits Mark, Ken and Cy have made over the years, from questions that our audience has submitted and from questions that commonly arise as we travel the country teaching BetterInvesting methods. We hope the session will prove to be enlightening, entertaining and educational.

Session 3: Finding & Profiting From Small Companies (Ken Kavula, Mark Robertson)

Date: Thursday — November 11 — 2 PM – 3:30 PM EDT
Registration: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/6936851163928269325

Every year near the end of October Mark and Ken examine the best small companies. Their track record of beating the market with their list of investable companies with revenues under $1.5B or thereabouts is impressive. Join them a they unveil their picks for 2021-22.

Session 4: Let’s Talk Stock: Stock Ideas NOW! (Kim Butcher, Ann Cuneaz, Pat Donnelly, Charlene Hansen, Ken Kavula, Cy Lynch, Mark Robertson)

Date: Thursday, November 11— 8 PM – 9:30 PM EDT
Registration: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/1142104927665262349

What happens when you gather seven of the best Stockpickers in our community on a single panel and ask them for great ideas? If you are lucky and listening hard you might get some of the best ideas in your investing career. Past panels have brought you winners like NEOG, ILMN, SLP, VEEV and ARNA. We hope some of you listened last fall as STNE, FIVE and EPAM were presented as great ideas for investing. What will we hear this year? We don’t guarantee all winners but we do think you will be entertained and informed. Join us and listen carefully.

Kim Butcher is a Lifetime member of BetterInvesting and a BetterInvesting National Convention Presenter as well as a Round Table Presenter for Manifest Investing . She is currently a member of 2 investment clubs and one being “Bionic”, an online club that has members from the East to the West coast. Her love of teaching began during her career as a nurse over 30 years ago. She is also a past member of the BetterInvesting Volunteer Advisory Board (BIVAB).

Ann Cuneaz is the Education Program Senior manager at BetterInvesting. Ann manages a variety of educational programs designed to help BetterInvesting Members become successful long-term investors, including First Cut Stock Reports, StockUp, TickerTalk, Online Stock Studies, Introduction to the Stock Selection Guide Series (SSG Series), Adding Judgement Series and more. Ann has been a member of BetterInvesting since 1998 and a founding partner of two investment clubs. Previously she was an active volunteer at the local, regional and national level since 2001. Ann holds a Bachelor of Science degree from the Michigan State University.

Pat Donnelly is president of the Pittsburgh Chapter having worked in several positions within the Chapter and previously served on the Better Investing Volunteer Advisory Board. Recently Pat has been elected to the Better Investing National Board of Directors. Pat is proudly married to Sue Donnelly and together they have two great kids. During the day, Pat is a cloud infrastructure technology consultant. Besides finding great stocks, learning from the great volunteers, he likes to learn and share about the many no-cost computer based resources available to the individual investor. Tools that are available to everyone, some of them built right into your computer. When time permits after that Pat is revisiting his interest in sailing.

Ken Kavula (kkavula1@comcast.net) has served the modern investment club movement in a wide variety of leadership volunteer positions. He is a Nicholson award winner, a retired educator and is regarded as a small company champion and respected speaker nationwide. You might have heard him teaching on the TickerTalk program for BetterInvesting. Before retirement, Ken served as Principal of Genesee HS for 21 years. He lives with his wife Natalie near their two children and five grandchildren and he also belongs to four investment clubs, including two Model clubs and a family club. Ken and Natalie are avid theater goers and travel as much as they can.

Charlene Hansen resides in Elk Rapids, Michigan, with her husband, Dennis, a retired Kroger Executive, and is a Director for the Mid-Michigan Chapter of BetterInvesting. Elk Rapids lies just north of Traverse City and is also the home to one of Mid-Michigan’s Model Clubs. Charlene is the President of this this club known as POVIC (Port of Value IC). POVIC has about 15 members, both men and women. In addition to her investing activities, she serves on the Elk Rapids Harbor Commission. Charlene enjoys golf, painting, reading and travel.

Cy Lynch (celynch@att.net) is a respected and experienced long-term investor and educator. He has served in a number of regional and national volunteer capacities and currently serves on the Better Investing Board of Directors. Among his many vocational roles include investment advisory and service as a lawyer. He recently was ordained as a Baptist Minister. He is a Lifetime member of Better Investing. Cy is a frequent contributor at MANIFEST, providing regular educational topics and a knight of the Round Table series. Cy and his wife, Barb, are enthusiastic advocates for animal rights.

Mark Robertson (markr@manifestinvesting.com) is founder and Managing Partner of Manifest Investing, served as senior contributing editor for Better Investing and has worked with successful investment clubs and individual investors since 1993. He has appeared on National Public Radio, CNBC and ABC to discuss long-term investing. He has also worked with Smart Money, Barron’s, Money magazine and the Motley Fool and been covered by the Chicago Tribune, Wall Street Journal and MarketWatch as well as a number of local publications.

What we do is different.

The modern investment club movement was a big tent … and a considerable bandwagon. Unfortunately, people’s capitalism and the stewardship of common stock OWNERSHIP has hit a bit of a speed bump, or worse. It’s pretty clear that some WD-40 is needed. The results achieved by the persistent are compelling. But too quiet.

What we do is different. We have no problem with things like discounted cash flow analysis — we believe that we’re chasing fewer variables and that SIMPLER is usually better when it comes to the realm of investing.

“Mathematics is ordinarily considered as producing precise and dependable results; but in the stock market the more elaborate and abstruse the mathematics the more uncertain and speculative are the conclusions we draw therefrom. In forty-four years of Wall Street experience and study I have never seen dependable calculations made about common-stock values, or related investment policies, that went beyond simple arithmetic or the most elementary algebra. Whenever calculus is brought in, or higher algebra, you could take it as a warning signal that the operator was trying to substitute theory for experience, and usually also to give to speculation the deceptive guise of investment.” — Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor

Amidst the chaos, turbulence and avalanche of information, we find it rewarding and seemingly more reliable to focus on growth, profitability and valuation in a different kind of model. As is often the case, events like a prior Morningstar Investment Conference serves to remind about the value of being simple … and different.

The audience gasped when Keith Lee of Brown Capital Management confessed that in over 25 years of successful investing that he’s never owned a financial sector stock. In his own words, Brown is “sector benchmark agnostic.” Brown Small Company (BCSIX) has a 10-year relative return of +1.5%.

Cathie Wood and ARK Investing (ARKK) have a relative return of +17.4% since 2014.

Keith Lee and Brown Capital Management and Cathie Wood and ARK Investing are different. We like different.

The Mid-Michigan Chapter of Better Investing is an outstanding example of community investing. Known as a “chapter” that operates on behalf of the National Association of Investors, the goal is to share the potential of long-term investing with as many individuals as possible. A network of investment clubs and individual investors has been admirably served by a talented team of educators and counselors for decades. The excellence runs deep — centered on the time-honored lessons of the modern investment club movement for the past 80 years. The chapter runs a steady series of educational programs and supports the development of regional and nationwide opportunities for sharing. We’re better together.

Manifest Investing is a web-based investing system including research and features/tools for stock and fund screening as well as resources for portfolio design and management. The resources are completely based on our interpretation of the lessons learned, methodologies, techniques and disciplines promulgated by the modern investment club movement. The intent is to serve do-it-yourself investors, small groups of portfolio managers known as investment clubs and to support the efforts of those who want to work in a more informed manner with their professional investing advisors. The community and content stream generates a continuous flow of actionable ideas. We seek and deliver “elegant simplicity” by focusing on a small number of factors and characteristics that really matter. Features and regular webcasts (e.g. monthly Round Table, weekly Bull Sessions) feature demonstrations of analysis and methods. Our focus is on demystifying investing — particularly when it comes to the design and management of a portfolio — enabling anyone to experience successful investing with their personal investing or retirement plans. We endorse and encourage investment clubs as vehicles for support and group learning.

If you’d like a FREE test drive of http://www.manifestinvesting.com to explore and experience the origins of community-driven actionable ideas, send your request to markr@manifestinvesting.com  The annual subscription is $40/year — a special offer that will expire at the end of the month.  The annual subscription will be $79 after that.

Best Small Companies – The Sixpeat

expectingalpha Investing, Stocks

“Stocks are rising: I wish I would have bought more at lower prices. Stocks are falling: Oh wait … Not these lower prices.” — Ben Carlson

“We believe that investing in emerging, well-managed small companies should be persistently pursued.” — Manifest Investing, November 2007

“A great small company, in our estimation, should exhibit the same characteristics as great medium and large companies.” — Ken Kavula, Expected Returns (December 2016)

This Week at MANIFEST (11/6/2020)

Stocks closed out their worst week since March. Anxiety is ruling the day on Wall Street with the collision of the pandemic and the upcoming election. (Morning Brew)

Stocks fell on Friday, led by the megacap tech names, to wrap up the worst week since March as coronavirus cases surged, U.S. fiscal stimulus talks broke down and traders braced for next week’s presidential election. Some buying in the last half hour of trading brought the major averages substantially off their lows of the day. Among the tech megacaps, only Google managed to eke out a gain following its Thursday earnings report, Apple pared more than 5% and is now more than 20% below its all-time high, Facebook fell 6% amid concerns about the 2021 ad market, and Twitter plunged 20% to wipe out its big run-up since mid-September. For the week, the Dow Jones average tumbled 6.5%, the S&P 500 sank 5.6%, and the Nasdaq lost 5.5%. (Seeking Alpha)

Best Small Companies (2020 Results)

Applause. Applause. There’s no way that celebrity audience at the Dorothy Chandler Pavilion could remain seated after seeing this. Get on your feet and celebrate another solid run for our Best Small Companies.

Yes, Virginia, that’s six in a row! The 2020 selections combine to deliver a total return of 13.3% versus 8.1% for the Wilshire 5000. The overall performance for the last six years now stands at 19.2% versus 9.7% for the total stock market.

VOTE For Remaining Fully Invested

I still need to dig up my research from a few years ago that makes the case that returns to investors is not about the party occupying the Oval Office. (Sorry if that doesn’t reconcile with your instincts or whatever proganda that current “journalists” are dishing out.)

As shown here, since Truman, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to “time” markets based on party affiliation.

Context & Perspective via Brian Wesbury, First Trust.

What If The White House and Senate Flip To The “Other Side?” Go shopping for some excellent companies. Assume ownership if the price (return forecast) is right. Maintain stewardship for as long as it makes sense to do so.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 2. Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
  • 4. Microsoft (MSFT)
  • 6. Visa (V)
  • 12. Alphabet/Google (GOOG)
  • 28. FaceBook (FB)
  • 32. Amazon (AMZN)
  • 33. Oracle (ORCL)
  • 34. Wells Fargo (WFC)
  • 37. T. Rowe Price (TROW)

Round Table Stocks

  • Amazon (AMZN)
  • Booking (BKNG)
  • Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
  • EPAM Systems (EPAM)
  • FaceBook (FB)
  • Fleetcor Technologies (FLT)
  • Google (GOOG)
  • InfoSys Tech (INFY)
  • Microsoft (MSFT)
  • SEI Investments (SEIC)
  • T. Rowe Price (TROW)
  • Truist (TFC)
  • VMWare (VMW)

Results, Remarks & References

P.S. As always, your feedback and contributions on these weekly emails is welcome. If you come across some awesome content, please send it to markr@manifestinvesting.com

Attached file: First_Trust_Covid_19_Tracker_20201030.pdf (369 KB)

Companies of Interest: Value Line (11/6/2020)

The median Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 7.1% vs.7.9% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: Groupon (GRPN), Amazon (AMZN), 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS), Cadence Design (CDNS), Cloudfare (NET), Square (SQ)

Materially Weaker: SAP (SAP)

Discontinued:

Demoted:

Note: The ticker for Absolute Software has changed from ABT.TO to ABST.

Market Barometers

“There’s a huge difference between an expectation and a forecast in investing. An expectation is an high-probability acknowledgment of how things might happen. A forecast is a specific prediction. In investing, forecasts are dangerous.” — Titan Research

Value Line Median Appreciation Projection (VLMAP) Forecast. The long-term median appreciation projection for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 10.7%, unchanged from 10.7% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 25% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009

Stocks For Interesting Times

expectingalpha Investing, Stocks , , , ,

Suffice to say that 2020 has been “interesting” and it’s serving up persistent reminders about investing regularly and the imperative of demanding quality in our stock selections. This session is hosted by the Northeast Ohio chapter of NAIC/Better Investing.

Stocks For Interesting Times

Ken Kavula and Mark Robertson will attempt to convince and remind investors that (1) we have been here (or someplace very similar) before and that (2) explore what’s worked for eight decades and (3) demonstrate a search for actionable stocks to study.

Date: Saturday — September 12
Time: 10:00 AM ET

Registration: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5302382039023635982


Covid Cancellation Conference (5/14-16)

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SCHEDULE PRESENTERS ABOUT

… and with a Nod To Places Like St. Louis, Philadelphia and Dallas …

As the accompanying image suggests (and “delivers”) we’re in the middle of storm clouds over places like St. Louis. Stock markets have been turbulent in the wake of a pandemic and the path ahead is foggy, at best. That said, we envision a break in the clouds, future rainbows and better days ahead. The pandemic includes an outbreak of event cancellations and there’s no more succinct way to express what we think about that. “We miss all of you.”

In that spirit, we’re building Successful Investing I — a compendium of investing discussions intended to characterize the current challenges and demonstrate the discovery of opportunity. We’ve been through similar challenges in the past and the key is remembering that no matter how deep and wide the chasm shall prove to be, there’s always opportunities for long term investors

FULL SCHEDULE

Thursday — May 14 — 8:30 PM ET Panel Discussion — Always Invest Better (Butcher, Donnelly, Kavula, Lynch, McManus, Robertson)

Friday — May 15 — 2 PM ET Small Company Discovery (Kavula, Robertson)

Friday — May 15 — 4 PM ET Bear Market Lessons (McManus, Robertson)

Saturday — May 16 — 1 PM ET Selling Guidelines (Kavula, Lynch, Robertson)

Saturday — May 16 — 3 PM ET These Are A Few Of Our Favorite Screens (2 Guys & “All”)

SESSION DESCRIPTIONS

Stock Selection Panel Discussion

We’ll kickoff the event with a traditional panel, spending a few moments honoring the past and providing a fully transparent review of historical performance … and we’ll share the analysis of a favorite idea … with a lightning round chaser. REGISTER

Small Company Discovery

Finding smaller companies to add to portfolios is always a challenge. What is the role of small companies in your portfolio? What’s the difference between small-cap and small company? Join Ken Kavula and Mark Robertson as they present a progress report on their Best Small Companies for 2020. They will show how the list was put together and look at some interesting ways to identify small companies for study and possible purchase. When’s the last time you added a great small company to your portfolio? REGISTER

Bear Market Lessons

In this session, Mark and Hugh will take a look at the challenges presented during bear markets and the reliable approach inspired by some of the Legends of Investing. Trust your studies. What can be done when earnings are a mess on your visual analysis? What opportunities should be emphasized during deeper recessions and bear markets? What stocks were favored ten years ago and how have they done? REGISTER

Selling Guidelines

For the last two or three years Mark Robertson and Ken Kavula have been looking at ways to refine the selling process. Cy Lynch brings the perspective of portolio-centered decisions and its impact on necessary management decisions. Starting with the traditional selling cues, Ken, Mark and Cy have been searching for triggers which might add a percentage or two to total portfolio returns. As the data mounts, the findings are worthy of further exploration. Listen to new ideas. Respect time-honored guidelines and traditions. Can we sell better? REGISTER

These Are A Few Of Our Favorite Screens

Join Mark Robertson and Ken Kavula in this no-holds barred discussion about investing. The Two Guys are known throughout our long term investing community for this lively discussion class and they are sure to not disappoint! You’ll never know exactly what the topics will be but you can be sure to walk away with thought-provoking stock ideas and useful ideas to put to work as you build your nest egg. This session will focus on our favorite sources of ideas and we’ll be joined by a suitable compliment of damsels and knights as we explore Ivory Soap, Irish Spring and a number of stock study idea generators. REGISTER

PRESENTERS & CONTRIBUTORS

Kim Butcher is a Lifetime member of BetterInvesting and a BetterInvesting National Convention Presenter as well as a Round Table Presenter for Manifest Investing . She is currently a member of 2 investment clubs and one being “Bionic”, an online club that has members from the East to the West coast. Her love of teaching began during her career as a nurse over 30 years ago. She is also a past member of the BetterInvesting Volunteer Advisory Board (BIVAB).

Pat Donnelly is president of the Pittsburgh Chapter having worked in several positions within the Chapter and previously served on the Better Investing Volunteer Advisory Board. Pat is proudly married to Sue Donnelly and together they have two great kids. Pat and Sue have recently added a grandchild. (Welcome to the Club!) During the day, Pat is a cloud infrastructure technology consultant. Besides finding great stocks, learning from the great volunteers, he likes to learn and share about the many no-cost computer based resources available to the individual investor. Tools that are available to everyone, some of them built right into your computer. When time permits after that Pat is revisiting his interest in sailing.

Ken Kavula (kkavula1@comcast.net) has served the modern investment club movement in a wide variety of leadership volunteer positions. He is a Nicholson award winner, a retired educator and is regarded as a small company champion and respected speaker nationwide. You might have heard him teaching on the TickerTalk program for BetterInvesting. Before retirement, Ken served as Principal of Genesee HS for 21 years. He lives with his wife Natalie near their two children and five grandchildren and he also belongs to four investment clubs, including two Model clubs and a family club. Ken and Natalie are avid theater goers and travel as much as they can.

Cy Lynch (celynch@att.net) is a respected and experienced long-term investor and educator. He has served in a number of regional and national volunteer capacities and currently serves on the Better Investing Board of Directors. Among his many vocational roles include investment advisory and service as a lawyer. He recently was ordained as a Baptist Minister. He is a Lifetime member of Better Investing. Cy is a frequent contributor at MANIFEST, providing regular educational topics and a knight of the Round Table series. Cy and his wife, Barb, are enthusiastic advocates for animal rights.

Hugh McManus (hughmcmanus@gmail.com) is a pharmaceutical scientist, successful long-term investor and renowned advocate at investment education conferences. A frequent contributor to MANIFEST, Hugh is also a knight, participating in our Round Table series. Hugh is renowned for his “less traditional” stock selections at conferences and for the Round Table but we know that he also maintains a steadfast core of vetted, excellent companies — accumulated at great prices over a few decades, too. Hugh is known for his extensive travels and has only recently spent a record number of days at home with his Irish Wolfhounds.

Mark Robertson (markr@manifestinvesting.com) is founder and Managing Partner of Manifest Investing, served as senior contributing editor for Better Investing and has worked with successful investment clubs and individual investors since 1993. He has appeared on National Public Radio, CNBC and ABC to discuss long-term investing. He has also worked with Smart Money, Barron’s, Money magazine and the Motley Fool and been covered by the Chicago Tribune, Wall Street Journal and MarketWatch as well as a number of local publications.

Sponsors

The Mid-Michigan Chapter of Better Investing is an outstanding example of community investing. Known as a “chapter” that operates on behalf of the National Association of Investors, the goal is to share the potential of long-term investing with as many individuals as possible. A network of investment clubs and individual investors has been admirably served by a talented team of educators and counselors for decades. The excellence runs deep — centered on the time-honored lessons of the modern investment club movement for the past 80 years. The chapter runs a steady series of educational programs and supports the development of regional and nationwide opportunities for sharing. We’re better together.

Manifest Investing is a web-based investing system including research and features/tools for stock and fund screening as well as resources for portfolio design and management. The resources are completely based on our interpretation of the lessons learned, methodologies, techniques and disciplines promulgated by the modern investment club movement. The intent is to serve do-it-yourself investors, small groups of portfolio managers known as investment clubs and to support the efforts of those who want to work in a more informed manner with their professional investing advisors. The community and content stream generates a continuous flow of actionable ideas. We seek and deliver “elegant simplicity” by focusing on a small number of factors and characteristics that really matter. Features and regular webcasts (e.g. Investing Round Table) feature demonstrations of analysis and methods. Our focus is on demystifying investing — particularly when it comes to the design and management of a portfolio — enabling anyone to experience successful investing with their personal investing or retirement plans. We endorse and encourage investment clubs as vehicles for support and group learning.

If you’d like a FREE test drive of http://www.manifestinvesting.com to explore and experience the origins of community-driven actionable ideas, send your request to markr@manifestinvesting.com  The annual subscription is $40/year — a special offer that will expire at the end of the month.  The annual subscription will be $59 after that.

 

We’re Not In Kansas, Anymore

expectingalpha Investing, Stocks , , , , , ,

This Week at MANIFEST (3/27/2020)

“Everybody who has ever invested during our darkest days has ultimately been rewarded. There’s no reason to think this time is different.” — Michael Batnick

“In the next two weeks we will witness a breathtaking degree of human ingenuity. It’s starting to bubble up now. The most capable among us are now fully engaged. That virus doesn’t know what’s coming for it.” — Scott Adams

“… for young investors, this is perhaps a once in a lifetime gift, and they should do their best to open and make maximum contributions… — Jim O’Shaughnessy, A Generational Opportunity

We’re Clearly NOT In Kansas, Anymore … Toto

The 1996 movie, Twister, features Helen Hunt, Bill Paxton, Jami Gertz and Cary Elwes, and depicts a group of storm chasers researching tornadoes during a severe outbreak in Oklahoma.

There’s a scene in the movie where the chasers dine at Aunt Meg’s house in a sort of scrambled eggs and pancakes royal feast. (And beef, it’s Oklahoma, after all…) They return to Aunt Meg’s a few hours later to find the house leveled by a tornado. Aunt Meg and her dog are rescued from the debris and the balance of the movie revolves around seeking refuge, dodging flying cows … and the ultimate final scenes where Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton strap themselves to a pipe in a barn as the entire enclosure is removed from around them. And then it’s gone … the sun comes out and clear skies manifest.

“Things go wrong. You can’t explain them, you can’t predict them. … You gotta move on. Stop living in the past, and look what you got right in front of you.” — Bill Harding (Bill Paxton)

The central theme of the movie is to chase down and “inject” a tub of monitoring devices into the center of a tornado so that scientists could study anatomy, vectors, etc. and improve predictive capabilities for the benefit of many. One of these modules of sensors is shown in the accompanying figure and is named “Dorothy” in obvious tribute to those who’ve navigated over the rainbow.

But the real life, the device called “Dorothy” was actually named TOTO by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). TOTO — which stands for “TOtable Tornado Observatory” — was a 55-gallon barrel outfitted to record storm data.

Enter our own “Dorothy” …

Whether we’re dealing with black swans, or a herd of buffalo simply trying to decide how to vector, or the wreckage from Aunt Meg’s house — clarity is a good thing. And although this won’t be perfect, at least we can come to terms with moderating forecasts as we attempt to understand how deep and how wide the current chasm challenge might be.

All 1400 companies that comprise the Value Industrials have current forecasts for 2020, 2021 and 2022 in our database. These are continuously updated (via YCharts) and will be shared frequently (at least weekly) going forward.

We’ve already seen that actual results for 2019 swooned while many people continued to marvel at “the best economy in the history of our country.” The rhinos on CNBC speak of unprecedented and undamaged “fundamentals.” They’re probably very, very wrong. My take is that it’s far from cataclysmic but not nearly as strong as many believe … and spew.

As recently as 3Q2019, expectations were for a median net margin of 8.5-9% for calendar 2019. As shown here, that didn’t happen. (Despite all of the fiscal stimulus and churning of stock buybacks, etc.) Expectations were for 9.0-9.5% in 2020. We’ll monitor very closely to see how much of a shortfall to expect, displaying it as soon as possible. But the 2020 year end median net margin went from 8.4% to 8.0% in just the last week.

[The main characters are in the shed hiding from an F5 tornado and Bill sees water pipes coming out of the floor.]

Bill: Here! These pipes go down at least thirty feet, if we anchor to them we might have a chance!
Jo: Have you lost your nerve?
Bill: Tighten your seatbelt.

Whether we’re talking about empty planes or empty restaurants… this too shall pass. We persisted through challenging times in November 2008 … backing up the truck and stepping on the gas in March 2009. We don’t have 30 feet of submerged pipe but we have nearly eight decades of wisdom and lessons deployed. We’ll chase the storm, dodge the flying cows … and attempt to navigate prudently this time, too.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 1. Apple (AAPL)
  • 21. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
  • 25. Intel (INTC)

Round Table Stocks

  • Acuity Brands (AYI)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • IPG Photonics (IPGP)
  • NVIDIA (NVDA)
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
  • Universal Display (OLED)

Best Small Companies (2020 Dashboard)

The status of the 2020 Best Small Companies can be tracked at: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/best-small-companies-2020

Investing Round Table Sessions (Video Archives)

Investing Topics (Video Archives)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (3/27/2020)

The median Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 14.7% vs. 18.1% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: HP (HPQ), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Apple (AAPL)

Materially Weaker: Plantronics (PLT), Benchmark Electronics (BHE)

Discontinued: Pattern Energy (PEGI)

Market Barometers

“There’s a huge difference between an expectation and a forecast in investing. An expectation is an high-probability acknowledgment of how things might happen. A forecast is a specific prediction. In investing, forecasts are dangerous.” — Titan Research

Value Line Median Appreciation Projection (VLMAP) Forecast. The long-term median appreciation projection for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 21.8%, INCREASING from 15.8% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 25% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

“It is my opinion that these future appreciation forecasts are going to be revised downward (and with larger downward revisions than currently expected/anticipated) faster than someone can yell, “Fire” in a crowded movie theatre.  In a word: It’s a Trap !!!” — Nick DiVirgilio

Nick is right.

Some of the geekier among us will recognize Admiral Ackbar from Star Wars:

The phrase stems from a memorable quote said by Admiral Ackbar (voiced by Erik Bauersfeld), the leader of Mon Calamari rebels, during the Battle of Endor in the 1983 Star Wars film Episode VI: Return of the Jedi. In the movie, as the Alliance mobilize its forces in a concerted effort to destroy the Death Star, Admiral Ackbar encounters an unexpected ambush, which leads him to exclaim, “It’s a trap!”

And we’re getting perhaps a little geeky, but here’s a snippet of how we’re approaching this … and why I’m optimistic that we’re barking at the right tree.

  • After the stock market closed on Friday and locked in prices for the weekend, the median projected return (MIPAR) was 18.1%.
  • A current data refresh of our database now displays a MIPAR of 17.4%.
  • The prices didn’t change. But YCharts has been busily and dutifully updating analyst forecasts (most likely from work-from-home environments) all weekend long and this bolsters my instincts on this.

There’s no way to know the duration and amplitude of this disruption — but at least we’re not flying blind with “static analyses” on the positions that we follow.

But … chances are … we’ll have a much better perspective on the CHASM than “average investors”.

 

Or, as Mr. Spock would say, “it’s only logical, Captain”.  — Ted Brooks

 

Update Batch: Stocks to Study (3/27/2020)

Long & Short Term Perspectives. (March 27, 2020) Proj Ann Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. MANIFEST Ranking: Combination ranking that equally weights PAR and Quality. VL Low Tot Ret: Value Line forecast, expressed as low total return forecast. Owner’s PROC: Projected Return on Capital via 5-year EPS forecast versus current capital — equity and debt. Morningstar and ACE and P/FV: Price-to-Fair Value estimates from the (2) sources. 1-Yr ACE Tot Return: One year total return estimates via ACE.

Market Benchmarks (Continued)

Value Line Arithmetic Average. We’ve reached relative strength levels that suggest potentially oversold. But a reminder nudges away in that the bouncing ball bounced at a “bottom” for several months from November 2008-March 2009, a period that seemed like a very, very, long time.

Manifest Investing Median Return Forecast (MIPAR). Reaching those levels seen in 2008-2009.

Value Line Industrials. Net Margin Not much change as the last few “precincts” for 2019 report in with their actual 4Q and 2019 year-end actuals. But we dropped from 8.4% to 8.0% on the 2020 estimates with a little erosion on the 2021-2024 expectations.

This one’s for Ted Brooks. Because he’s right about the algos and the Rise of the Machines.

You can’t look at this without noticing the daily transaction volume in the last 30 minutes or so (actually 15 … or 5) minutes of trading every day.

spx last 30 20200320

Surrender, Dorothy?

Whoa.

We didn’t expect our version of “Dorothy” (or TOTO) to capture the changing landscape quite this quickly.

Sure. Our beloved Wall Street rhinos are back at their desks — many of them probably working from home — and they’re clearly not in a good mood. A quick comparison of this weekend’s chart shows no improvement in 2019 … with continued declines in 2020E and 2021E … and the slope of the long term trend has already deflected enough that we can “feel” it in our return forecasts.

 

There’s no place like home.  There’s no place like home.  There’s no place like home.

Hoping For A Pandemic of Perspective

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Hoping For A Pandemic Of Perspective

The Covid-19 challenge is serious. Very serious. Nothing about these remarks is intended to be light-hearted or flippant. It’s a fact that I lost my father recently and the cause listed on his death certificate is “Coronavirus.” The country and globe are actively attempting to suppress the potential exponential growth of the Wuhan virus — and every effort could be instrumental in saving many, many people.

No one knows what the economic impact of this mission will be. No one knows with any certainty how long the measures will be necessary. We did have a positive indicator in that schools in South Korea are considering resuming their schedules. That brings the notion of “finite period” into better focus. There are also encouraging signals on confirmed case growth and mortality rates in many geographies. And we pray for significantly better results from places like Italy, etc.

With an element of “This, Too, Shall Pass …” we look to the investing world with disrupted confidence and dented expectations. That said, with the passage of time, we expect to look back on this time as also a period of opportunity. For anybody still signing the back of a paycheck with any level of reasoned risk tolerance, the Generational Opportunity words of Jim O’Shaughnessy are compelling.

We — this Community — are by nature, optimistic and willing to carefully consider opportunity. In that spirit, I have this feeling that we’re in days that resemble November 2008. We began accumulating assets that continued to decline and had to wait until March 2009 for the recovery to get into full swing. I’ve been accumulating shares of Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) every time the relative strength index breaks below 30 while I shop for the types of stocks that we’ll cover here.

Be well. Stay healthy. Good hunting!

All-Of-The-Above Investing ($VLE) takes a considerable “hit.” If there’s a refuge or safe oasis among the 1700 stocks in the Value Line Arithmetic Average, I’m having trouble seeing it. The index has been under pressure — lagging the S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 for some time — as the smaller companies have struggled fairly mightily over the last couple of years. But what I’m also having trouble seeing is the widely spewed opinion that this swoon is “unprecedented.” On closer analysis of this 20-year view of this collection of stocks, does this look unprecedented to you?

Yes … the “velocity” of the price drop from all-time highs in February to current levels has been brutal. I doubt that we’ve seen any major index go from overbought (RSI>70) to oversold *RSI<30) in less than a month.

Manifest Investing Median Projected Return (MIPAR). As shown here, the sudden sea change in stock prices have delivered return forecast expectations that we haven’t seen since that financial markets fiasco of 2008-2009.

Recession Watch

A number of respected economists have suggested that a recession is already here. They could be right. Why do we care? Because, as we’ve documented here for a long time — when a recession hits, what really materializes is a tidal wave of companies deflecting to negative earnings, a condition that makes analysis very challenging. In fact, we discussed the nature of the 2008-2009 CHASM fairly extensively as we navigated those choppy waters back then.

So are we looking at a chasm? How deep? How wide?

In the pursuit of some perspective on this, we’ve gone ahead and moved up our fundamental updates on all of the Value Line industrials — a group of approximately 1400 companies. The analyst consensus estimates for revenues and earnings for 2020E, 2021E and 2022E provide a closer look at the onset of a developing chasm. Those results (and current condition) are shown here:

Value Line Industrials (ex-Financials) — Profitability Trend & Forecasts. The longer term trend (blue line regression) is STRONG. The impact of the 2008-2009 recession is displayed as the median net margin dropped to 6%. We note that expectations a few months ago for 2019 net margin were in the range of 8.4%. Much of that evaporated as 2019 came to a close and those hoped-for levels were not attained. There are still several companies wrapping up final numbers for 2019 but it should be clear that some disappointment was inevitable. I may have missed it, but during January and February, I don’t recall too many Wall Street rhinos talking about this erosion of expectations. We note that there’s been moderate slippage in 2020E expectations and we’ll be watching this aggregate closely (read daily, published weekly) as analysts work to envision how detrimental the current economic isolation will be for many companies. We also note that any “degradation” over the next 12-18 months could lead to a downward adjustment to the longer term growth and profitability forecasts.

The Wall Street rhinos have circled the crash (as shown above) and we’ll be watching them closely.

Storm In Progress … Time To Be A Buffalo?

There’s a great lesson that can be learned from watching the behavior of cows and buffaloes when it comes to the onset of a serious storm.

The cows will align and walk/run in an attempt to out run the advancing storm. They don’t run very fast — and the outcome is certain.

So the storm catches up with the cows rather quickly. And without knowing any better the cows continue to try to outrun the storm. But instead of outrunning the storm they actually run right along with the storm. Maximizing the amount of pain and time and frustration they experience from that storm!

The cows end up huddled and drenched or neck deep in a snow drift.

Isn’t that stupid?

Humans do the same thing all of the time. We spend so much of our lives constantly trying to avoid the inevitable challenges that come along with the difficult circumstances that our very own choices have led us to be in.

The reaction of a buffalo is just the opposite. They will turn in the direction and head towards the oncoming storm, courageously charging ahead.

What buffalo do on the other hand is very unique for the animal kingdom. Buffalo wait for the storm to cross right over the crest of the peak of the mountaintop and as the storm rolls over the ridge the buffalo turn and charge directly into the storm.

Instead of running east away from the storm they run west directly at the storm. By running at the storm they run straight through it. Minimizing the amount of pain and time and frustration they experience from that storm.

Notice how it’s the exact same storm. It’s such a great metaphor for all of us because all of us are dealing with the same types of storms.

  • The average return forecast (MIPAR) is now 17.0%.
  • The average relative strength index is now 25.6 (Oversold)
  • The vast majority of stocks are trading at or near their 52-week lows.

What To Buy? Consider ‘Toilet Paper’

The legends about the hoarding of toilet paper and kitchen towels are true. The shelves are empty at all of the local grocery stores. Any incoming inventory is stripped from the pallet and never makes it to the shelves.

I have a secret. The demand for toilet paper is relatively constant. (See accompanying chart)

This is another case of “This, too, shall pass.”

I will share that I made observations about this on social media and one of our Florida colleagues suggested that perhaps Bounce, the laundry sheets, might provide an acceptable stop gap measure. In her words, “my bottom is now pleasantly scented and static free.” Our son Alex and I dutifully checked the next aisle over and sure enough … there were several containers of Bounce. We placed a limit order.

There are few things steadier than this toilet paper consumption trend:

… and that leads to price stability for providers like Procter & Gamble (PG)

So part of our mission is to identify opportunity among companies with leadership earnings stability. Here’s a short list of high-quality companies that are less economically impacted due to their ability to “bounce back” and persist during supply and demand-side challenges and disruptions.

Screening Results (3/17/2020). The primary screen is EPS Stability in top decile (>90%). The secondary screen is Manifest Rank greater than 95.

  • Yes, all the concerns about dine-in, carry out and delivery apply to Texas Roadhouse.
  • Note that many of the candidates are related to food delivery and preparation.
  • With the exception of Google, all companies are oversold with RSI<30.
  • The negative numbers in the 52-week position mean that the stock is trading below its 52-week low and this will be “reset” by YCharts to reflect the new range. (This lags by a few hours)
  • Note the P/FV ratios and virtually unanimous consent from Morningstar and ACE — and levels we’ve not seen in some time.
  • The 52-week total return forecasts are probably lagging also (will likely adjust and moderate downward) but they’re certainly causing nosebleeds for now.

Sources

Dilbert: A Stock Market Perspective

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The Stock Market Is Doing It’s “Stock Market Thing”

You know him as the originator of the Dilbert series. Scott Adams shared some thoughts on investing during his podcast yesterday. Scott will be the first to tell you that we should not take investment advice from him. That said, we can certainly contemplate perspective … particularly when that results in a grounding of emotions…

The following is an unofficial transcript of the podcast. It may be slightly paraphrased but it definitely captures the essence and general attitude. Adams focuses on “systems rather than goals.”

In Scott’s words …

Simply put, ” My goal is to stay alive … not be a burden on the healthcare system.”

I take a nice long walk every day … I’ve taken sugar completely out of diet … with [prudent/periodic brief] time outs from social media.

Keep your stress down. Relax.

The stock market is doing it’s stock market thing of trying to scare us.

I’m not worried whatsoever about a generally falling stock market. Do you know what really bothers me? A generally rising stock market when I’m not in it. When the stock market goes down, my share of the world goes down proportionally. And when it goes up, my share goes up proportionally. My success generally depends on the world doing well. And it has.

So, no, I’m not worried about the stock market.

If you think you’ll be alive for two years or more, then you shouldn’t be afraid.

Don’t worry about the stock market Invest widely in successful companies. When the success continues … The stock market will do it’s thing … and then it’ll be back.

Groundhog Challenge (2019 Results)

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This Week at MANIFEST (2/7/2020)

“Patience is genius in disguise.” — Hugh McManus

“The function of education is to teach one to think intensively and to think critically. Intelligence plus character – that is the goal of true education.” — Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

Dateline: 02/02/2020. Yep, it’s a Groundhog Day palindrome — a numerical formation that hasn’t happened for 907 years.

  • This week’s update includes that Value Line Investment Survey Issue No. 13 plethora of community favorites.
  • Our cracker jack team of accountants have been spending more time eating pizza, swilling adult beverages and lighting cigars with greenbacks than crunching Groundhog Data thanks to the YCharts data.
  • When the stock that dominates Groundhog portfolios, Ardelyx (ARDX), has a positive final day of the Groundhog season while the market suffers one of its worst daily declines in years — the standings get disrupted. Newcomer Kurtis Sears still took home the individual honors but surrendered the top of the overall leader board to a rogue band of knights.
  • And yes, if you believe in the Super Bowl indicator, you’re hoping the San Francisco 49ers pan some gold. As of January 2020, the indicator has been correct 40 out of 53 times, as measured by the S&P 500 Index – a success rate of 75%. Sorry, Mahomes and Kansas City …

HAPPY GROUNDHOG DAY, EVERYBODY!

  • The average annual total return for Groundhog Challenge participants over the last 13 years is 13.9%. The benchmark Wilshire 5000 has gained 8.8% over that time frame.
  • The total return for the WIlshire 5000 (VTSMX) during Groundhog XIII was 17.9%.
  • The overall performance leaders for Groundhog Challenge XIII (2019) and winners of the “institutional” category are our Round Table Knights (Mark Robertson, Cy Lynch, Hugh McManus and Ken Kavula.) The stocks (including the aforementioned Ardelyx) chosen by the knights netted a total return for the 1-year contest of 67.8%. If you’re not familiar with our monthly FREE webcasts, you should be. You can register for the February 25th (8 PM ET) here. Second place in the institutional category went to the Motley Fool — with their relative new ETF (TMFC) checking in at 30.1%. An honorable third place among the institutions went to Abby Jo Cohen at 29.5%. After a few really rough years on the Barron’s Round Table, it’s good to see Abby among the honorable mentions.

  • The individual championship went to Kurtis Sears (pictured here, with family) of Oklahoma. Kurtis had a considerable lead going into the final day — but the 1-day down draft in the general market combined with a positive day for ARDX turned the tables. Kurtis is a newcomer and bolted out of the starting gate with a 66.7% result for the 2019 contest. 2-time Individual Champion Hugh McManus checked in at second place with a 62.1% total return. Third place for individual honors went to Gail Goldstein at 51.4%. In Gail’s own words, “Thanks so much for the gift of bragging rights after coming in 3rd place in the annual Groundhog Challenge. I’m 81 years old and only started investing on my own about 15 years ago. It reminds me of the time when shortly after I taking up golf, I accidentally (seriously) sunk at 80 foot putt.” Gail clearly gets it. There are few things more important than ending up on the leader board of this Championship of the CIVILIZED investing world. Several community citizens turned in solid results including Kaye Light, Barath Arianayagipuram (top of the leader board for most of 2019), Marty Eckerle, Nick DiVirglio, Petra Linden and Ruth Wilfong. It was a banner year with a number of Hoggers topping 30% (see below). Good luck in 2020, Gail and everybody …

  • We have it on pretty good authority that the accompanying image on the right accurately reflects the mood and atmosphere at meetings of the Bower City Ladies investment club of Janesville, Wisconsin. Why? Because the Bower City Ladies are the Group Champions for the 2019 campaign — their third championship all-time and second in the last four years! The Janesville ladies join the Broad Assets of St. Louis as 3-time champions. Bower City netted a 38.7% return for the trailing year. I’m thinking we should set up an investing club cage match between St. Louis and Janesville (by the way, Beardstown would be approximately at the epicenter between the two) and do some serious open house stock selection. Second place in the group category went to perennial leader board presence, Herb Lemcool and his grandchildren, the Koolkids of Traverse City, Michigan (36.4%). Third place in the group category went to education stalwart Ken Kavula and his family investment club (31.5%).
  • We mentioned this before and we’ll post the market beaters for 2019 below — but a horde of group entries dominated the 2019 leader board. 40% of individual combatants beat the WIlshire 5000 but 57% of the group entries topped the stock market for Groundhog Challenge XIII.

Bower City Ladies — Janesville, Wisconsin. Sitting (left-to-right) Marcia Neleson, Lavina Kuzuhara, Sue Chwala, Susan Maciolek, Cec Vanderlip, Lesley Hammer, Janet Miller. Standing: Carol Hatch, Beth Drew, Martina Tse, Laura Sykora, Barb Cisler, Mary Anna Greene, Maria Enriques, Laurie March. Missing: Julia Walters, Nancy Presti and Jodee Helland

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 2. Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
  • 4. Microsoft (MSFT)
  • 12. Visa (V)
  • 13. Alphabet/Google (GOOG)
  • 28. Oracle (ORCL)
  • 31. Wells Fargo (WFC)
  • 35. T. Rowe Price (TROW)
  • 38. Facebook (FB)

Round Table Stocks

  • Alphabet/Google (GOOG)
  • Amazon (AMZN)
  • Booking (BKNG)
  • Cognizant Technology (CTSH)
  • eBay (EBAY)
  • EPAM Systems (EPAM)
  • Facebook (FB)
  • Fleetcor Technologies (FLT)
  • Global Payments (GPN)
  • Infosys Tech (INFY)
  • Microsoft (MSFT)
  • PayPal (PYPL)
  • T. Rowe Price (TROW)
  • VMWare (VMW)

Best Small Companies (2020 Dashboard)

The status of the 2020 Best Small Companies can be tracked at: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/best-small-companies-2020

Investing Round Table Sessions (Video Archives)

Investing Topics (Video Archives)

Results, Remarks & References

Groundhog Challenge XIII (2019) … continued …

Here are the 2019 entrants that “beat” the Wilshire 5000 during the trailing 12 months. Congratulations to all of you. Press on!

Groundhog 2020: The Battle Resumes

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Battle? Yes, our 14th annual “battle.” The battle is part of our continuing demonstration that it is possible to humble the total stock market. And it’s more fun when we do it together. As we tally the 2019 results, please submit your 2020 entries. Good Hunting and Good Luck!

Groundhog Challenge XIV (2020)

We hold certain truths to be self-evident.

That most of us like to sleep at night.

That most of us believe in Occam’s Razor.

That “patience is genius in disguise.” — Hugh McManus

Most of us marvel at the performance of a relatively-passive model portfolio like our Bare Naked Million

We also pay homage to a few selected Rhinos. (Past winners have included Eddy Elfenbein, Abby Jo Cohen (Goldman Sachs), David Einhorn and Warren Buffett.) Some are included just for fun … it’s like playing against the “house.” #BeatJimCramer

We’ll keep it simple (again) for Groundhog XIV (2020).

Rules of Engagement

1. Enter by selecting a minimum of five (5) investments and a maximum of twenty (20) positions.

2. Participants will receive $1,000,000 in Groundhog dollars. The cool million will be divided evenly across the number of positions you decide to use. In other words, if you pick (5) stocks … we’ll divide the $1,000,000 evenly, creating a public dashboard with $200,000 each. If you submit (8) stocks, it’s $125,000 each.

3. Participants may submit entries as individuals and/or group (clubs).

4. No transactions will be permitted between February 3, 2020 and February 2, 2021.

5. Entries can be made between now and then and will be accepted until the market opens on Monday, February 3 at 9:30 AM ET.

Entries can be submitted by emailing markr@manifestinvesting.com or by posting here in the Groundhog Challenge forum folder.

Special Consideration. We will grant an exemption (an extension) to any group (investment club) that enters the fray during the month of February.

6. Stocks under $1 not permitted.

This is a total return contest — the influence of dividends is accounted for.

Who: The few. The proud. The brave. Bring your best ideas — club and individuals.

Self-Directed Excellence

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This Week at MANIFEST (1/24/2020)

“Life is like a snowball, all you need is wet snow and a really long hill.” — Warren Buffett

This past week, we lost a very special charter subscriber to Manifest Investing. My Father. I think his ID number was single digits. He was also a charter member of our Chicago-based investment club, evolved into an investing warrior … and was quite simply, my favorite EAGLE.

A couple of weeks ago I huddled with my father over his monthly ritual of opening his E*Trade envelope. A careful slice of the envelope (he saved every single one of them, every one) and I heard him say some of my favorite words, “My Colgate-Palmolive stock is worth how much? That can’t be right.” A $2000 investment in CL was now worth $28,000. This was typical of many holdings. In fact, the gains in Gentex, Pepsi, and Vanguard Technology (VGT) were actually much bigger.

His experience with General Electric was “different.” He shared his disappointment with GE often.

But he fixated on the steady delivery of Colgate. As the accompanying image shows, the company occupied Mom and Dad’s Christmas tree. We first talked about this long ago, see: When Monsters Are Created. It’s a story about consumer and stakeholder loyalty. This past weekend, I noticed that all of the squeezed toothpaste tubes on the bathroom sinks (including those toted by his grandchildren) were Colgate. He left a mark.

The image of Mom and Dad was captured at an Investor Fair in Springfield, Illinois. Long story short, the Biomet investor relations representative had told Mom and Dad over breakfast that $2000 invested in Biomet circa 1980 was worth $1,000,000 in the late 1990s. It’s a fact. (For more, see Raise A Cup: Million Dollar Moment — April 2012) It’s also potential freedom. Magic and miracles happen when given a chance.

Dad was a magnificently complicated man. He often chided me for complaining about bears and investing. “Not all bears are bad. I give one to your mother every Valentine’s Day. Besides, we loaded up on some pretty good stocks in March 2009 thanks to one of your bears.” Much wisdom.

And, in closing, one of the simplest and 100% effective lessons ever: Lessons From Fathers & Simple Things, Solid Results (Some might note that this may have been the earliest reference to Five Below)

Bottom Line: Dad took his investment club experience back in the 1990s and deployed it with an IRA that was invested in a CD that also happened to be charging $75/year for “custodial service.” We recently calculated that it would have worth approximately $20,000 if left in that paltry “risk free” situation. We moved it to E*Trade and he carefully selected companies like Gentex, Johnson & Johnson, AFLAC, Walgreen/CVS and leaned heavily on Vanguard Technology (VGT) despite his age. His balance grew to be a lot more than $20,000. When we talked about “risk”, I observed that “Dad, you’ve NEVER, EVER, acted your age.” He didn’t think long term investing included the risk they talk about on television and teach in colleges and business schools. He was right.

For so many of the deepest lessons and love imaginable, THANK YOU, DAD.

MANIFEST 40 Updates

  • 23. Pepsi (PEP)
  • 32. Tapestry (TPR)
  • 39. Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
  • 40. Costco Wholesale (COST)

Round Table Stocks

  • Costco Wholesale (COST)
  • Dollar General (DG)
  • Five Below (FIVE)
  • Schwab, Charles (SCHW)
  • Skechers (SKX)
  • TJX Companies (TJX)
  • Tyson Foods (TSN)
  • Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

Best Small Companies (2020 Dashboard)

The status of the 2020 Best Small Companies can be tracked at: https://www.manifestinvesting.com/dashboards/public/best-small-companies-2020

Investing Round Table Sessions (Video Archives)

Investing Topics (Video Archives)

Results, Remarks & References

Companies of Interest: Value Line (1/24/2020)

The median Value Line low total return forecast for the companies in this week’s update batch is 5.5% vs. 4.6% for the Value Line 1700 ($VLE).

Materially Stronger: Wal-Mart (WMT), Aaron’s (AAN), Costco Wholesale (COST), AutoZone (AZO)

Materially Weaker: Conn’s (CONN), Designer Brands (DBI), Children’s Place (PLCE), Fossil (FOSL), Kohl’s (KSS), Ollie’s Bargain (OLLI), Molson Coors (TAP)

Discontinued: Avon Products (AVP), Medicines Co. (MDCO)

Note:

Market Barometers

The thing very few people tell you about “overvalued” markets is that, occasionally, the fundamentals arrive to justify them. — Joshua Brown

Value Line Median Appreciation Projection (VLMAP) Forecast. The long-term median appreciation projection for the 1700 companies featured in the Value Line Investment Survey is 8.8%, a DECREASE from 9.7% last week. For context, this indicator has ranged from low single digits (when stocks are generally overvalued) to approximately 25% when stocks are in the teeth of bear markets like 2008-2009.

Update Batch: Stocks to Study (1/24/2020)

Long & Short Term Perspectives. (January 24, 2020) Proj Ann Return (PAR): Long term return forecast based on fundamental analysis and five year time horizon. Quality: Percentile ranking of composite that includes financial strength, earnings stability and relative growth & profitability. MANIFEST Ranking: Combination ranking that equally weights PAR and Quality. VL Low Tot Ret: Value Line forecast, expressed as low total return forecast. Owner’s PROC: Projected Return on Capital via 5-year EPS forecast versus current capital — equity and debt. Morningstar and ACE and P/FV: Price-to-Fair Value estimates from the (2) sources. 1-Yr ACE Tot Return: One year total return estimates via ACE.